Key Economic Indicators (2023-2028)

Employment Outlook

• 2023 Job Growth:
  • 1,800 new jobs expected
  • Follows 2,300 jobs restored in 2022
  • Leading sectors: Healthcare, public sector, professional/business services, manufacturing
• Long-Term Projections (2023-2028):
  • Healthcare to lead job creation, followed by construction
  • Total employment growth: 3,500 additional jobs (1.0% avg. annual increase)
  • Unemployment rate:
    • 2022 avg.: 14.6%
    • 2023 forecast: 17.6%
    • 2024-2028 forecast: 17.0% avg.

Population & Housing Trends

• Population:
  • 2023 growth: Modest recovery after 3-year decline
  • 2023-2028: +1,300 residents (0.14% avg. annual growth)
• Housing Market:
  • Median home price:
    • 2022: $332,000 (+7%)
    • 2023 forecast: $323,200 (-2.65%)
    • 2024-2028: +2.9% avg. annual appreciation
  • New housing permits: ~400 units/year (mostly single-family)

Sector-Specific Forecasts

Construction Employment

• 2022: +6.7% growth
• 2023: -1.9% contraction
• 2024: -0.4% slight decline
• 2025-2028: +10.3% avg. growth (Lithium Valley projects to add 1,000 jobs)

Manufacturing Employment

• Key employers: Spreckels Sugar (300 workers), U.S. Gypsum (350 workers)
• 2022-2023: +9.9% growth each year
• 2024-2028: -0.2% avg. contraction (automation offsets agricultural output gains)

Transportation & Warehousing

• 2022: +6% growth (record truck crossings)
• 2023: -4.8% contraction
• 2024-2028: +250 jobs (cross-border trade & solar energy drive recovery)

Retail Trade

• Major employers: Walmart, Target, Costco (1,400+ jobs combined)
• 2023: -300 jobs lost (e-commerce shift)
• 2024-2028: +500 jobs (population growth supports rebound)

Healthcare Sector

• Top employers:
  • El Centro Regional Medical Center (500-1,000 workers)
  • Pioneers Memorial Healthcare District (750 workers)
  • Imperial County Behavioral Health (250-500 workers)
• 2023: +900 jobs
• 2024-2028: +1,300 jobs (largest private-sector growth)

Agriculture

• 2022 gross output: $2.4 billion
• Employment:
  • 2022: -5.5% decline (automation)
  • 2024-2028: +0.4% avg. growth
• Top commodities: Cattle ($400M+), vegetables/melons (~50% of output)

Growth Engines for Imperial County

1. Lithium Valley Development

• Potential: 18M tons of lithium in Salton Sea brine (supports 375M EV batteries)
• Projects:
  • EnergySource Minerals ($1B facility by 2025)
  • StateVolt ($4B battery plant proposed)
  • 11 geothermal/lithium projects in pipeline

2. Cross-Border Trade

• Calexico Port of Entry:
  • 2022 truck crossings: All-time high
  • Supports 3,000+ Asian companies operating in Mexico
• Nearshoring: Manufacturing shifts to Mexicali/Tijuana boost Imperial Valley logistics

3. Renewable Energy Expansion

• Solar: 16,100+ acres operational (2,311 MW); 8,300 more acres in development
• Battery Storage: 125 MW operational; 3,580 MW planned

4. Government & Corrections

• Major employers:
  • Calipatria/Centinela State Prisons (2,200+ workers)
  • El Centro Naval Air Facility (Blue Angels base)

Challenges & Risks

• Inflation:
  • 2022: 7.9% → 2023: 3.7% → 2024: 2.96% forecast
  • Impacts consumer spending and economic growth
• Labor Market:
  • High unemployment (17%+ avg.) due to seasonal ag work and education gaps

Conclusion

Imperial County’s economy is transitioning from agriculture-dominated to a diversified mix of energy, logistics, and advanced manufacturing. Key opportunities include: ✅ Lithium extraction & battery production ✅ Solar/battery storage expansion ✅ Cross-border trade infrastructure For commercial real estate insights in Imperial Valley, visit ImperialValleyCommercialSpace.com.