Imperial County Economic Forecast

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Key Economic Indicators (2023-2028)

Employment Outlook

  • 2023 Job Growth:
    • 1,800 new jobs expected
    • Follows 2,300 jobs restored in 2022
    • Leading sectors: Healthcare, public sector, professional/business services, manufacturing
  • Long-Term Projections (2023-2028):
    • Healthcare to lead job creation, followed by construction
    • Total employment growth: 3,500 additional jobs (1.0% avg. annual increase)
    • Unemployment rate:
      • 2022 avg.: 14.6%
      • 2023 forecast: 17.6%
      • 2024-2028 forecast: 17.0% avg.

Population & Housing Trends

  • Population:
    • 2023 growth: Modest recovery after 3-year decline
    • 2023-2028: +1,300 residents (0.14% avg. annual growth)
  • Housing Market:
    • Median home price:
      • 2022: $332,000 (+7%)
      • 2023 forecast: $323,200 (-2.65%)
      • 2024-2028: +2.9% avg. annual appreciation
    • New housing permits: ~400 units/year (mostly single-family)

Sector-Specific Forecasts

Construction Employment

  • 2022: +6.7% growth
  • 2023: -1.9% contraction
  • 2024: -0.4% slight decline
  • 2025-2028: +10.3% avg. growth (Lithium Valley projects to add 1,000 jobs)

Manufacturing Employment

  • Key employers: Spreckels Sugar (300 workers), U.S. Gypsum (350 workers)
  • 2022-2023: +9.9% growth each year
  • 2024-2028: -0.2% avg. contraction (automation offsets agricultural output gains)

Transportation & Warehousing

  • 2022: +6% growth (record truck crossings)
  • 2023: -4.8% contraction
  • 2024-2028: +250 jobs (cross-border trade & solar energy drive recovery)

Retail Trade

  • Major employers: Walmart, Target, Costco (1,400+ jobs combined)
  • 2023: -300 jobs lost (e-commerce shift)
  • 2024-2028: +500 jobs (population growth supports rebound)

Healthcare Sector

  • Top employers:
    • El Centro Regional Medical Center (500-1,000 workers)
    • Pioneers Memorial Healthcare District (750 workers)
    • Imperial County Behavioral Health (250-500 workers)
  • 2023: +900 jobs
  • 2024-2028: +1,300 jobs (largest private-sector growth)

Agriculture

  • 2022 gross output: $2.4 billion
  • Employment:
    • 2022: -5.5% decline (automation)
    • 2024-2028: +0.4% avg. growth
  • Top commodities: Cattle ($400M+), vegetables/melons (~50% of output)

Growth Engines for Imperial County

1. Lithium Valley Development

  • Potential: 18M tons of lithium in Salton Sea brine (supports 375M EV batteries)
  • Projects:
    • EnergySource Minerals ($1B facility by 2025)
    • StateVolt ($4B battery plant proposed)
    • 11 geothermal/lithium projects in pipeline

2. Cross-Border Trade

  • Calexico Port of Entry:
    • 2022 truck crossings: All-time high
    • Supports 3,000+ Asian companies operating in Mexico
  • Nearshoring: Manufacturing shifts to Mexicali/Tijuana boost Imperial Valley logistics

3. Renewable Energy Expansion

  • Solar: 16,100+ acres operational (2,311 MW); 8,300 more acres in development
  • Battery Storage: 125 MW operational; 3,580 MW planned

4. Government & Corrections

  • Major employers:
    • Calipatria/Centinela State Prisons (2,200+ workers)
    • El Centro Naval Air Facility (Blue Angels base)

Challenges & Risks

  • Inflation:
    • 2022: 7.9% → 2023: 3.7% → 2024: 2.96% forecast
    • Impacts consumer spending and economic growth
  • Labor Market:
    • High unemployment (17%+ avg.) due to seasonal ag work and education gaps

Conclusion

Imperial County’s economy is transitioning from agriculture-dominated to a diversified mix of energy, logistics, and advanced manufacturing. Key opportunities include: ✅ Lithium extraction & battery production ✅ Solar/battery storage expansion ✅ Cross-border trade infrastructure For commercial real estate insights in Imperial Valley, visit ImperialValleyCommercialSpace.com.